Dalal Street Week Ahead (Aug 18–24): Jackson Hole, FOMC Minutes & Key Global Cues in Focus

The market snapped a six-week losing streak with ~1% gains in the truncated week ended Aug 14. Nifty closed at 24,631 (+268) and Sensex at 80,598 (+740), supported by softer inflation and strong DII flows. Still, without strong follow-up buying, expect a range-bound, consolidative week driven mostly by global cues.

Why This Week Matters

Global macro will lead the narrative: Jackson Hole Symposium, FOMC minutes, and flash PMIs will guide risk appetite. Back home, watch diplomatic engagements with China & Russia, plus high-frequency prints like unemployment and PMI. Tariff headlines can still swing sentiment intraday.

1) Jackson Hole Symposium (Aug 21–23)

Central bankers gather in Wyoming. Theme: “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.” The highlight is Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Aug 22. Markets want clarity on the rate path amid softer US inflation but lingering tariff risks.

2) FOMC Minutes (Aug 20)

Minutes from July (rates held at 4.25–4.50%) should reveal how open the Fed is to a cut. Any hint of caution due to tariff-linked inflation could cap risk-on moves globally.

3) Global Data to Track

• US: Housing starts, existing home sales, weekly jobs claims
• Europe/Japan/UK: July inflation prints
• PMI Flash (Aug): Manufacturing & Services across US, EU, Japan

4) India’s Geopolitical Calendar

• Aug 18: Chinese FM Wang Yi in India (SR talks)
• Aug 21: EAM in Moscow for talks with Sergey Lavrov

Matters more after the 50% US tariff on Indian goods; any progress headline can move FX and equities.

5) Domestic Macro Docket

• Unemployment (Jul): Aug 18 (expected improvement from 5.6%)
• HSBC Flash PMI (Aug 21): July was strong (Mfg 59.1; Services 60.5)
• FX Reserves (week to Aug 15): Aug 22

6) Flows Watch: FIIs vs DIIs

FIIs: still net sellers recently (tariffs + valuations). DIIs: buying on dips continues, helping stabilize indices. A turn in FII trend is key for a sustained breakout.

7) IPO & Listings Calendar

8 IPOs (~₹3,724 cr) line up this week:

• Mainboard (Aug 19): Vikram Solar, Gem Aromatics, Patel Retail, Shreeji Shipping Global
• Mainboard (Aug 20): Mangal Electrical Industries
• SME: Studio LSD (Aug 18), LGT Business Connextions (Aug 19), Classic Electrodes (Aug 22)
• Listings: BlueStone Jewellery & Lifestyle, Medistep Healthcare, and more

8) Technical View (Nifty 50)

• Formed a Tweezer Bottom but still below the 10-week EMA
• Support: 24,350–24,300; Resistance: 24,750–24,800 (above this, doors open toward 25,000)
• Indicators: RSI recovering; MACD still bearish; VIX rising (12.36) → trade with respect for risk

9) F&O Cues

• Call OI walls: 24,700–25,000 ⇒ overhead supply
• Put OI base: 24,500–24,000 ⇒ demand zones

Data signals consolidation unless a decisive breakout arrives.

10) Corporate Actions

Expect stock-specific moves from dividends, AGMs, and splits; keep an eye on announcements for short bursts of momentum.

Key Levels to Watch

Market Outlook (Aug 18–24)

Short-term tone is still cautious. Without FII buying and a clean break above 24,800, expect choppy, range-bound action. Stock-specific opportunities should continue—especially in consumption-linked plays, select midcaps, and IPO names with quality balance sheets.

• Traders: Buy on dips with tight stop-losses; avoid over-leveraging into event risk.
• Investors: Stay selective; prioritize earnings visibility, cash flows, and prudent leverage.

WynWealth Takeaway

Is week ka game global hai—Jackson Hole + Fed minutes. Headlines can flip sentiment overnight. Discipline, sizing, aur patience will likely beat aggression in a consolidating tape. Hum saath hain—signal milega to action hoga.

Screeners for This Week

Strategy ko execution mein badlo—use WynWealth screeners to spot clean setups (breakouts, momentum, value, F&O cues):
Explore WynWealth Screeners →

Note: Education purpose only. Markets carry risk. Please consider your risk profile or consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.