Market Recap
Markets ended last week on a positive note — Nifty gained nearly 1%, anchored by optimism around GST rationalisation and
hopes of a rate cut after Jackson Hole. Yet, a Friday pullback reminded investors that caution still matters, particularly
with key global and domestic events lined up this week.
US Fed Expectations & Powell’s Jackson Hole Signal
Jerome Powell’s speech hinted at a potential rate cut in September, reigniting expectations for easier Fed policy. If the Fed
follows through, we could see renewed FII inflows, which are crucial to reviving near-term momentum on Dalal Street.
However, breaking beyond the 25,250–25,300 resistance zone remains a challenge.
Tariff Deadline Approaching (Aug 27)
A key macro risk looms: the US is set to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 27, bringing the total
to 50%. With no high-level trade meetings on the calendar, markets may get choppy unless there’s a surprise relief.
India & US GDP + Core PCE Data
- US: Q2 GDP (second estimate) and Core PCE — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — will steer global risk appetite.
- India: Q1 FY26 GDP print is in focus. Street expects growth in the ~6.5% zone, supported by consumption and a favourable monsoon.
GST 2.0 Reforms & Consumption Boost
Government’s GST streamlining (two-slab idea and rationalisation on essentials) is expected to lift consumption sentiment,
potentially supporting earnings momentum in consumer-linked pockets over the next few quarters.
Geo-Political Watch
Markets remain sensitive to geopolitical uncertainty — especially around the Russia-Ukraine situation. A stalled peace
dialogue and sporadic escalation can add a risk premium to commodity-linked sectors and select global cyclicals.
FII vs DII Flow
FPIs were net sellers last week (≈ ₹1,560 crore), pressuring the upside. DIIs, however, provided strong support (≈ ₹10,388 crore)
and continue to follow a buy-on-dips approach. A decisive Fed pivot could help stabilise FPI flows.
IPO & Corporate Action Calendar
A busy primary market week: ~10 IPOs (~₹1,240 crore) open for subscription, with multiple listings queued up. Expect pockets
of IPO-driven volatility and short-term rotations in small/mid-caps.
Technicals & F&O Positioning
- Nifty: Friday saw a defensive reversal, but the index is still holding above 20/50-DMA cluster (≈ 24,830–24,840).
- Range: Options positioning implies 24,500–25,500 band into monthly expiry; heavy OI at 25,000 strike.
- VIX: India VIX cooled to ~11.7 — low fear, but also leaves room for sudden spikes around data/events.
Sectoral Themes & Risks
Mixed earnings trends and tariff concerns are weighing on autos, cap goods, consumer durables, and IT. If GST relief
translates into demand, consumption proxies could stabilise first; exports and global cyclicals may remain headline-driven.
WynWealth Snapshot Table (Key Scenarios)
| Trigger | Possible Market Reaction |
|---|---|
| Fed dovish + tariff delay | FII inflows; Nifty can test 25,500–25,800 on momentum extension. |
| Tariff goes live + weak growth data | Range-bound to negative bias; defensives & high-quality compounders preferred. |
| GST boost + solid GDP/PCE prints | Consumption-led rally; watch autos, retail, select staples & discretionary. |
Bottomline for Investors
- Respect the range; avoid chasing gaps. Add on dips with tight risk limits.
- Favor domestic demand leaders; keep an eye on tariff and Fed headlines.
- Use tools like the
WynWealth Screeners
to spot breakouts, value, and momentum shifts in real time.
WynWealth Note: This is a global-cue heavy week. Stay nimble, data-driven, and disciplined — patience often beats aggression in a consolidating market.
